This paper offers a comprehensive set of software development effort and schedule estimating models for agile software projects using contractor backlog data, monthly contract reports, and related requirements documents. The regression models in this study predict effort or schedule using six different sizing measures: functional stories (requirements), unadjusted function points (UFP), simple function points (SiFP), issues, stories, and story points. We also offer effort and schedule benchmarks and descriptive statistics of the dataset. The analysis is based on data collected from 18 agile projects implemented within DHS and DoD between years 2014 to 2021. In addition to being able to estimate software development effort and schedule to support DHS and DoD decision reviews of agile programs, the cost analysis community can also use these models to crosscheck vendor proposals and evaluate contract performance.
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    Dr. Wilson Rosa
    Assistant Director
    Dr. Wilson Rosa serves as Assistant Director at the DHS Cost Analysis Division. He has over 25 years of experience in government including DHS and DoD. In 2015, Dr. Rosa launched the Annual Software and IT Cost Analysis Forum. Winner of seven Best Paper Awards and published his work at the two best engineering journals: IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering and Journal of Systems and Software. His notable achievements include the Navy Superior Civilian Service Medal, the 2017 Defense Acquisition Workforce Innovation Award, and being an invited TEDx Talks Speaker at the 2019 TEDxDAU live event.
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    Sara Jardine
    Senior Cost Analyst
    Sara Jardine is a Senior Cost Analyst with Galorath. She is an experienced Operations Research Analyst who has worked directly for a broad variety of government agencies, including the Navy, Veterans Affairs, and OUSD AT&L. Ms. Jardine is skilled in Cost Management, Project Management, Requirements Analysis, Cost Analysis, Contract Management, and Budget Management. She has an a M.S. focused in Project Management from The George Washington University and a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of Michigan.